「BTC OG Insider Whale」 Agent's Long Essay Rebuts Bear Market View: Threefold Bearish Conditions Needed for Confirmation of Bear Market, Current Investor Structure Differs Significantly from 2022
BlockBeats News, January 19, "BTC OG Whale Insider" agent Garrett Jin posted a long article on social media, stating that recently some analysts have compared the current Bitcoin price trend to the 2022 market (bearish). There may be some similarities in the short-term price pattern. However, if we look at the long-term picture, this comparison appears completely absurd.
Garrett Jin explained that the current macro background is completely opposite to that of 2022. At the beginning of 2022, the primary goal of capital was risk aversion, and Bitcoin at that time exhibited a distribution structure at a high point in a tightening cycle. In the current macro environment, the U.S. liquidity index has broken through both short-term and long-term downtrend lines, indicating the emergence of a new uptrend.
In addition, between 2021 and 2022, Bitcoin showed a weekly chart M-top structure, which is usually associated with a long-term cycle top and tends to suppress prices for a long time. However, there is currently a breakout of the weekly chart uptrend channel. From a probability perspective, it now looks more like a bear trap before returning to the channel. Although the possibility of a bear market cannot be ruled out, it must be noted that the $80,850 to $62,000 range has undergone sufficient consolidation and turnover. The previous chip digestion process has provided a better risk-return ratio for long positions: the upside potential is significantly greater than the downside risk.
To restart a bear market, there needs to be a new inflationary shock or a major geopolitical crisis comparable to 2022; central banks restarting rate hikes or asset balance sheet quant tightening; and the price decisively and sustainably falling below $80,850. Before these conditions are met, it is too early to assert a structural bear market, as it is more speculative than analytical.
The biggest difference in the Bitcoin investor structure between the current (early 2026) and 2022 is the shift from retail-dominated, high-leverage speculation to institutional-led, structural long-term holding. In 2022, Bitcoin went through a typical "crypto-native bear market" driven by retail panic selling and cascading liquidations. Bitcoin has now entered a much more mature institutionalized era, characterized by stable underlying demand, locked-up supply, and institutional-level volatility.
You may also like

What Happened in Crypto Today? Solana-Native Rails Launch on Digitap ($TAP) as the Best Crypto to Buy
Key Takeaways Digitap ($TAP) spearheads the transition toward real-world utility in cryptocurrency, offering a seamless financial ecosystem through…

Here’s Why Fed Contender Kevin Warsh is Seen as Bearish for Bitcoin
Key Takeaways Kevin Warsh is a potential nominee for the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, causing concerns due to…

XRP Price Breakdown Intensifies — Can Support Mitigate the Shock?
Key Takeaways XRP has dipped below the significant $1.80 mark, continuing its downtrend. The asset is trading beneath…

Why is Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Kevin Warsh Seen as Bad News for Precious Metals, Commodities, Bitcoin, and Equities?
Key Takeaways: Kevin Warsh, once appointed, is expected to take a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, which…

Who Is Kevin Warsh? How His Fed Chair Odds Are Influencing Bitcoin Markets
Key Takeaways Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, is becoming a strong candidate for the next Fed…

Strategy (MSTR) Stock: Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Bet Goes Red But Here’s The Twist
Key Takeaways Strategy’s Bitcoin investment has dipped below its average purchase price, highlighting market volatility. No immediate financial…

Bitcoin Hashrate Falls 12% After US Winter Storms Hit Miners
Key Takeaways: The total network hashrate for Bitcoin has declined by approximately 12% since November 11, marking the…

Gold’s Six-Month Rally Against Bitcoin Shows Parallels to 2019 Cycle
Key Takeaways Gold has consistently outperformed bitcoin over the last six months, despite being typically considered the haven…

XRP Price Outlook for 2026: Is Bitcoin Hyper Part of Long Term Themes?
Key Takeaways The potential future of XRP in 2026 is significant, with various factors influencing its growth and…

Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Slips to $78K as Gold and Silver Plummet – Is the Downtrend Settling?
Key Takeaways Bitcoin and traditional safe havens like gold and silver experience synchronized declines in a volatile market…

Bitcoin Price Prediction: $50B Volume Drops 40% as BTC Tests $83K – Is a Breakdown Next?
Key Takeaways: Bitcoin’s trading volume has seen a significant decline, indicating cautious trader behavior. Bitcoin prices remain under…

Bitcoin’s 7% Drop to $77K Might Indicate Cycle Low, Analyst Suggests
Key Takeaways: Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop from $77,000 to around $78,600 after a modest rebound. Analyst…

Tom Lee–Linked Bitmine Faces Over $6B in Unrealized Losses on ETH Reserve
Key Takeaways: Bitmine Immersion Technologies reports significant unrealized losses exceeding $6 billion from its Ether reserves. The firm…

Silver Suffers Record 36% Drop as Precious Metals Crash – Is Bitcoin Primed for a Rally?
Key Takeaways Silver and gold undergo a historic collapse due to geopolitical and technical influences, culminating in significant…

XRP Price Prediction: $70M Liquidated as XRP Approaches $1.70 – Is $1.60 Next?
Key Takeaways XRP is experiencing a pronounced sell-off, struggling at the $1.70 level after a significant decline. A…

Ripple Co-Founder Initiates $40M Initiative to Combat California Wealth Tax
Key Takeaways Chris Larsen and Tim Draper initiate Grow California, a $40 million effort to counter a proposed…

Ethereum Price Prediction: $2.5B Liquidated as ETH Slides to $2,400 – Is $2,100 Next?
Key Takeaways Over $2.5 billion worth of crypto positions have been liquidated, with Ethereum bearing the brunt of…

Tether Profit Dips 23% in 2025, Yet Sets Record with $122B in Treasury Holdings
Key Takeaways: Tether’s profit for 2025 fell by 23% to just over $10 billion, reflecting a decline from…
What Happened in Crypto Today? Solana-Native Rails Launch on Digitap ($TAP) as the Best Crypto to Buy
Key Takeaways Digitap ($TAP) spearheads the transition toward real-world utility in cryptocurrency, offering a seamless financial ecosystem through…
Here’s Why Fed Contender Kevin Warsh is Seen as Bearish for Bitcoin
Key Takeaways Kevin Warsh is a potential nominee for the U.S. Federal Reserve chair, causing concerns due to…
XRP Price Breakdown Intensifies — Can Support Mitigate the Shock?
Key Takeaways XRP has dipped below the significant $1.80 mark, continuing its downtrend. The asset is trading beneath…
Why is Trump’s Fed Chair Pick Kevin Warsh Seen as Bad News for Precious Metals, Commodities, Bitcoin, and Equities?
Key Takeaways: Kevin Warsh, once appointed, is expected to take a more hawkish stance on monetary policy, which…
Who Is Kevin Warsh? How His Fed Chair Odds Are Influencing Bitcoin Markets
Key Takeaways Kevin Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor, is becoming a strong candidate for the next Fed…
Strategy (MSTR) Stock: Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Bet Goes Red But Here’s The Twist
Key Takeaways Strategy’s Bitcoin investment has dipped below its average purchase price, highlighting market volatility. No immediate financial…